14   Quarter 1  2026   BUILDERSDIGEST 
THE CANADIAN ECONOMY AND CONSTRUCTION PART 1
“WITH THE WORLD ECONOMY 
changing rapidly and confidence 
in forecasting at a perilously low point, 
planning for the future is… complicated,” 
says Peter Hall, CEO of econosphere 
inc., in his opening remarks to the 
158th annual general meeting of the 
Toronto Construction Association on 
Feb. 24. “There is currently little investor 
confidence to move forward, especially 
with strife occurring in many parts of the 
world.” He adds that this uncertainty is 
causing businesses worldwide to pause  
or stop future projects and curtail  
long-term hiring.
Hall was the chief economist at Export 
Development Canada and before that 
directed economic forecasting at the 
Conference Board of Canada. He is now 
the CEO of his own consulting business, 
econosphere inc. He advises leading 
Canadian industry associations and 
corporations on international initiatives and 
conducting ad hoc project work.
As an economist, Hall reinforces the fact 
that prominent economic professionals 
are stating that forecasting isn’t actually 
possible due to economic uncertainty. 
This is cold comfort to businesspeople, 
who can’t move forward with future plans 
without a forecast. He then noted that it 
seems every day something happens that 
puts economics in flux and referred to 
the recent decision by the U.S. Supreme 
Court regarding IEEPA tariffs, the wars that 
are happening or are anticipated and the 
recent pandemic. Business confidence has 
swooned because of the current uncertainty.
INFLATION, JOB MARKET  
AND A RECESSION
Hall, looking at inflation and the job data, 
notes that inflation is hovering around the 
2.0 per cent target desired by the Bank of 
Canada. He warns that if the number drops 
below the target, creating disinflation or 
deflation, then consumer spending could 
be affected by Canadians waiting for lower 
future prices. As far as the job market is 
concerned, the average unemployment rate 
has risen in the last two years from 6.1 per 
cent to 6.9 per cent.
Hall notes that the current uncertainty 
is causing investors to hold back and 
“there is no building of things whether its 
commodities or building projects.” He also 
states that consumer sales have stayed flat 
through 2025, and interest and mortgage 
UNCERTAINTY SHIFTS SOURCES OF DEMAND
ECONOMIC CHAOS:  
ECONOMIC CHAOS:  
THE NEW REALITY
By Warren Heeley

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