WAR & GLOBAL WORK SCENARIO 2: THE ADAPTATION – GLOBAL WORK REINVENTS ITSELF In the second scenario, the disruption acts not as a ceiling but as a catalyst. The crisis forces the kind of innovation and rethinking that comfort rarely produces. There are already signs of this. Regional economies are adapting swiftly; Saudi Arabia, for instance, has pivoted toward land-based oil export pipelines, while Dubai and Qatar have introduced emergency liquidity and business support packages to stabilize their economies. Gulf states are leveraging their energy wealth to attract investment in AI and digital infrastructure, positioning themselves as hubs for the next economy even as regional conflicts persist. Meanwhile, at the end of January, India and the EU reached a landmark free trade deal, creating the world’s largest free trade zone encompassing two billion people and nearly 25 per cent of global GDP. This is a powerful reminder that geopolitical disruption in one part of the world can accelerate integration elsewhere. New trade corridors open and new partnerships form. In this scenario global work does not shrink but simply reroutes. Technology plays a central role in this scenario. Global mobility becomes increasingly virtual. AI tools fill the void when physical movement is constrained. Real-time translation, AI-augmented cross- cultural briefings and virtual collaboration platforms become more central to cross- boundary collaboration; and they democra- tize global work, reducing the premium on physical presence and making it possible for professionals and firms that previously lacked the budget for frequent travel to participate meaningfully in international markets. The World Economic Forum’s Global Value Chains Outlook 2026 found that nearly three in four business leaders now prioritize resilience investments, with 74 per cent viewing resilience as a driver of growth rather than a cost, calling for a shift away from efficiency-driven supply chains towards “adaptive networks.” In other words, there is increasing pressure to build more flexible, redundant and relationship- rich global networks. In this scenario, the global professionals who thrive are those who have invested in the kinds of deep, trust-based relationships that persist through disruption and that no rerouted flight path can sever. WHICH SCENARIO WILL PREVAIL? Probably neither, in its pure form. Reality, as always, will be messier. But the direction of travel matters enormously and it is not predetermined. It will be shaped, in signifi- cant part, by how global leaders respond. Do they retreat into regional comfort zones or do they invest in the relationships and capabilities that allow them to work across disrupted landscapes? Do they treat geopolitical risk as a reason to disengage or as a prompt to become more sophisticated about where and how they engage? The answer cannot be to go it alone or to pull up the drawbridge. The challenges we are navigating, from energy security to supply chain resilience and talent mobility, are precisely the kind that require coordina- tion across borders, not withdrawal from them. The post-Cold War phase of rela- tive stability has given way to a more fragmented system, marked by weaker international coordination and intensified competition among major powers. But this makes the quality of global leadership more, not less, consequential. The cost of global work is rising. The cost of poor global leadership or of abandoning global work altogether, is rising faster. Sebastian Reiche is a professor of people manage- ment at IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain. His research focuses on the forms, prerequi- sites and consequences of global work. This article first appeared in the IESE online blog. SETTING THE STANDARD IN CANADIAN VEHICLE TRANSPORT • Over 45 Years of transportation excellence • 300 trucks augmented by rail service across Canada • Our Move Management technology keeps you in the driver’s seat throughout your vehicle’s journey • Mature team of dedicated employees always ensures consistent and dependable service • Hansen’s fleet of seasoned professional drivers treat your vehicle like their own • Flexible pick-up and delivery options to suit your every move type • Local, regional, long-distance, and cross-border moves performed Online quotations at www.LHF.com or call 1-888-420-8888 for more information 20 PERSPECTIVES Summer 2026
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