TCA Builders’ Digest is published for the Toronto Construction Association 70 Leek Crescent, Richmond Hill, ON L4B 1H1 Tel: (416) 499-4000 • Fax: (416) 499-8752 www.tcaconnect.com Publisher Robert Thompson Editor Roma Ihnatowycz Sales Executives Nolan Ackman Dawn Stokes Derek de Weerdt Mike Manko April Krysowaty Contributing Writers Matthew Bradford Andrew Brooks Treena Hein Sarah B. Hood Senior Graphic Designer James T. Mitchell Published by: 33 South Station Street North York, Ontario M9N 2B2 Toll Free: (866) 480-4717 robertt@mediaedge.ca 531 Marion Street Winnipeg, MB R2J 0J9 Toll Free: (866) 201-3096 Fax: (204) 480-4420 www.mediaedgepublishing.com President Kevin Brown Senior Vice-President Robert Thompson Director, Business Development Michael Bell Branch Manager Nancie Privé All rights reserved. The contents of this publication may not be reproduced by any means, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of the association. Published November 2018. Publication Mail Agreement #40787580 Return undeliverable copies to: Toronto Construction Association 70 Leek Crescent, Richmond Hill, ON L4B 1H1 Phone: (416) 499-4000 • Fax: (416) 499-8752 Builders’Digest Builders’ Toronto Construction Association’s Quarterly Perspective Toronto Construction Association’s Quarterly Perspective PRESIDENT'S MESSAGE John G. Mollenhauer, President Toronto Construction Association ASKMEADIFFICULTQUESTIONANDIPROMISEACOMPLICATEDANSWER.THETRUTHISI’MNOTEVENCERTAIN why we use the term “free” trade in the context of international trade agreements. Does that not pre-suppose that the benefits are balanced and reciprocal? And what exactly do the acronyms CPTPP, USMCA and CETA even mean? Let’s start our conversation about the impacts of international trade agreements with an overview. Jim Carr, our federal Trade Diversification Minister, boasts that Canada is the only G7 country with free trade agree- ments with all G7 member countries. But even that is not entirely true. We do theoretically have the NAFTA agreement, which we assume will be superseded by the USMCA, but our former ally Donald Trump slammed NAFTA on March 1, 2018 when he introduced the steel and aluminum tariffs. And ratification of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement won’t be completed before the spring of next year at best. I say “at best” because the Republicans retained control of the Senate in the recent U.S. mid-term elections, but it is the Democrats that are now poisedtotakecontroloftheHouseofRepresentatives.TheDemocratshave historically opposed free trade agreements, the original NAFTA included, and don’t much care that we rely on the U.S. for roughly 75 per cent of our international trade. Put another way, Trump may control the vital Senate Finance Committee, but will likely not control the equally vital House Ways and Means Committee, and ratification presumably needs both. As a consequence, we cannot say for certain that the USMCA will be rati- fied at all. More to the point, notwithstanding trade agreements with all G7 nations, exports of Canadian goods and services in recent years have slipped from 44 per cent of our GDP to just over 30 per cent. The good news for Canada is that we are just over a year into the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agree- ment (CETA for those of you who care about acronyms) and that agreement, despite still being “provisional,” is working. And when things went south with NAFTA, the Trudeau government turned its attention to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP), which like the trans-Atlantic deal will inevitably pay economic dividends. Indeed, six of the 11 CPTPP countries have already ratified the trans-Pacific trade agreement and it looks like that agreement will take effect before the end of this calendar year. Impacts of international trade agreements 6 | Builders' Digest Quarter 3 2018