b'BUILDFORCEPOST PANDEMIC, BY BILL FERREIRA, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, BUILDFORCE CANADACONSTRUCTION IS FACED WITH FAMILIAR CHALLENGES THAT REQUIRE NEW SOLUTIONSE conomically speaking, construction appears to haveRESIDENTIAL, NON-RESIDENTIAL DEMANDS PEAK IN 22, rebounded from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.DIVERGE AFTERThe question now remains: how will it manage resultingThe rise in construction sector activity in 2021 lifted on-site labour force challenges? employment to nearly 1.126 million workers. That figure was a Industry employment rebounded sharply in 2021 on the strengthseven-per-cent increase over 2020 levels and a one-per-cent rise of increased demand in nearly every sector. By the end of the year,over 2019 levels. Our modelling suggests that employment will rise total construction investment had risen by 11 per cent over 2020even further through the end of this year before the residential and non-residential sectors diverge. levels and 10 per cent over 2019 levelsa year considered to be one of the strongest on record. By 2027, we expect that employment will have returned to 2021 levels. Heres why:First-quarter 2022 data show even further increases. Construction investment reached an all-time high of $20 billion in February,Extremely strong residential sector demand brought 2021 while the value of building permits issued by municipalities thatemployment to 10 per cent above 2020 levels. Housing starts rose month also surged to a record high of $12.4 billion. Although bothby 26 per cent over 2019 levels and 21 per cent over 2020 levels. totals were driven by strong demand for residential construction,As the cost of housing increases and interest rates rise, those start activity in the non-residential sector jumped just as sharply. levels are unlikely to be sustained. We expect the number of starts CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARDNATIONAL SUMMARY to moderate through 2025 before declining through the end of our Construction in Canada, in other words, is as hot as it ever hasforecast period in 2027.Although labour market conditions in 2021 were tight in Ontario,investment increased by approximately 11% in 2021 and was 10% been and shows no signs of cooling.Quebec, British Columbia, and Nova Scotia, nearly all provinceshigher than levels recorded in 2019. Non-residential construction experienced some challenges, as employment grew at a faster rateincreases were less pronounced, despite a significant rise inAlthough demand for residential renovations is expected to than the labour force, contributing to lower overall levels of industrypublic-sector investments. International travel restrictions, periodic unemployment. In most provinces, this was welcome news, but insclosures, and occupancy restrictions depressed investment levelsincrease as demand for new construction retreats, the overall provinc In our annual Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward es such as Ontario and Quebec, where unemployment level in the commercial sector, as did ongoing debate over the future of were already low, the additional construction demands createdcommercial office towers.residential labour force is expected to contract by 19,500 workers recruitment challenges for many employers, both in the residential and labour market information reports, released in March, BuildForce non-residential sectors. As workers displaced from the constructionFigure 2 shows that overall investment in the non-residential labour force rejoin the industry in 2022 and an expected moderation insector was up 8% from 2020 levels, and up 4% when comparedby 2027.Canada p struction takes hold, industry labou marketto levelsrecorded in 2019. The rise was even more dramatic in demand for new-home con rojects that const r ruction wil l continue to grow through pressures are expected to ease slightly, but not significantly, until thethe residential sector, where investment was up 14% from 2020 middle part of the decade. totals and more than 17% when measured against 2019 levels. 2027 on the strength of across-the-board near-term demand andMeanwhile, activity in the non-residential sector is expected to chart a Construction investment is essentially sustained into 2023 and then declines gradually over the six-year forecast period. Total NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION FORECAST OVERVIEWinvestment is expected to be approximately 1% lower by 2027 sustained activity in several key sectors. different course. The sector recovered well in 2021 as most COVID-19 (2022 TO 2027) than levels posted in 2021.Canadas construction sector is on the cusp of a generational shift. EMPLOYMENT emergency measures were lifted. Public sector infrastructure spending As theOur forecast 21, d labour market data in this years reports cover economy recovered in 20 eone interesting trend that emergedThe rise in construction-sector activity in 2021 lifted employment to was a slower pace of return to the labour force of older workers. at federal and provincial levels combined to bring engineering sector Unlike the Great Recession when younger workers were let go first a period of six years, as opposed to the 10 studied in previousinvestments up by eight per cent over 2020 levels, and above pre-and took longer to return to pre-recession levels of employment, the1,125,850 workersa 7% rise from 2020 levels and a 1% rise over pandemic caused some older workers in the core working-age group2019. The surge in construction activity in both the residential and to leave the labour force, many of whom have been slow to return asnon-residential sectors is expected to boost employment furtherreports. The narrower period allows the report to focus more onpandemic levels. Those investments are expected to peak at the end of emergency measures were lifted. This caused a tightening of labourto a peak in 2022, before diverging trends take hold thereafter. markets across most provinces, driving unemployment rates lower, Over the forecast period, industry employment is expected to as employment outpaced labour force growth for much of the year.moderate, essentially returning to 2021 levels by 2027. Figure 3 the short- and long-term demand pressures impacting the sector. this year before moderating through 2027.tracks employment over the forecast period.Investment across Canada increased dramatically in 2021 as Canadas economy recovered from COVID-19. Total year-over-year constructionNATIONAL SUMMARYCONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARDFigure 1: Total construction investment, Canada. (Courtesy of BuildForce Canada) Figure 2: Construction employment by sector, Canada. (Courtesy of BuildForce Canada)Figure 2: Total construction investment, Canada Figure 3: Construction employment by sector, CanadaFORECAST FORECASTSHORT TERM LONG TERM SHORT TERM LONG TERM180,000 700,000160,000140,000 600,000120,000 500,000100,000 400,00080,00060,000 300,00040,000 200,00020,000100,00000Non-residential Residential Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada (2022-2027)* $2012 millions indicates that the investment values are in year 2012 dollars (base year), that is, adjusted for ination. \x03is is used to calculate the real physicalResidential Non-residential Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada (2022-2027)year-to-year change of the value of construction, factoring out growth (increase in value) due to increases in prices.LABOUR FORCE period. When this demand growth is added to the 156,000 individuals 16AN ASSESSMENT OF CONSTRUCTION LABOUR MARKETS FROM 2022 TO 2027 5 expected to retire during this periodin total, approximately 13% of THE OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SCAFFOLD INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION OF CANADA Although employment over most of the forecast period will bethe 2021 labour forcethe overall industry recruitment requirement retreating from the peak levels achieved in 2022, labour forcerises to 171,850 workers by 2027. While the industry is expected to management during this period will be challenging. Industryrecruit approximately 142,850 new-entrant workers under the age of retirements are expected to reach their highest levels over the next 30 during this period to help offset some of this requirement, even two years as large numbers of workers from the baby-boomat these heightened levels of recruitment, the industry is likely to be generation exit the industry. Construction demands will require theshort some 29,000 workers by 2027. Figure 4 shows changes in the industrys labour force to expand by 15,900 workers over the forecastconstruction labour force over the forecast period.Figure 4: Changes in the construction labour force, Canada2021 2027LABOUR +15,880 LABOURFORCE WORKERS FORCE1,201,130 1,217,010HIRING NEEDS HIRING NEEDS OFFSET BYWORKERS RETIREMENTS NEW ENTRANTS NET MOBILITY*+15,880 +155,967 -142,847 +29,000* Net mobility refers to the number of workers needed to be brought into the industry from other industries or other provinces to meet rising demands orthe number of workers that exit the industry in downturns. Positive net mobility means that industry must attract workers, while negative net mobility arises from an excess supply of workers in the local construction labour force. Note: Due to rounding, numbers may not add up to the totals indicated.Source: BuildForce Canada 6 AN ASSESSMENT OF CONSTRUCTION LABOUR MARKETS FROM 2022 TO 2027'