b'COVER STORYI am telling clients to buckle their seat belts because we\'re going to go for a bit of a ride. Hopefully, it all settles, but for now, we need to understand what can potentially happen, find other avenues to fill labour shortages, and just stay agile- Cristina Guida, Green and Spiegel LLPWilliam Kitay is a cross-border trade andthat we were expecting this five years ago,measures dont reflect all U.S. views on economics analyst who is also keepingand nothing happened. As it is, we don\'tCanada-U.S. trade. Indeed, says Kitay, his a close eye on the border. While waitknow what the road map looks like work with clients and stakeholders in the and see isnt an ideal state, he says itsfrom here." U.S. has reinforced the longstanding fact important for employers and their mobilitythat many Americans prefer to keep people teams to keep a cool head. At this point,BARRIERS and goods moving smoothly between the we have to avoid jumping the gun becauseThe spectre of tariffs on Canadian goodsCanada and the U.S.were really just chasing shadows, he says.also looms large for businesses. If and The best thing employers can do is bewhen the U.S. goes through with its plansNever ever forget that 34 states have flexible and prepared for a lot of differentto levy a 25 per cent tariff on all incomingCanada as their largest trading partner, things, but thats always been the case. products from Canada, the price hikes willKitay says. In the past 12 months, we One of the looming risks to cross-borderlead to increased business operating costs,have had delegations of businesses led by talent mobility are potential changes tosupply chain disruptions, economic uncer- governors from both red and blue states, the existing United States-Mexico-Canadatainties, and a shift in hiring practices.and they dont want things to go sideways. Agreement (USMCA)a free-tradeThese developments will undoubtedlyThey believe in the relationship, so we agreement that went into effect in 2020.impact job opportunities and alter assign- just need to work with them. We\'ve got Trump has not clarified his amendmentment structures for workers on both sidesfriends in the U.S., and I dont thinkplans, but mobility professionals predictof the border. And Canada\'s retaliatorythats changing. that a redesign may alter the agreementsmeasures could further complicate cross-List of Professionals. border business operations and impactAs changes at the Canada-U.S. border talent mobility. take shape, Canadian employers and their "We lean quite heavily on that system toTrumps tariff plans were delayed at timemobility professionals are preparing as get people work permits for Canada, theof writing. And again, mobility profes- best as they can. What I\'ve been telling U.S. and Mexico in a fairly efficient way,sionals find themselves in a holdingU.S. clients is that unless business travel is and it works very well," says Guida. "Ifpattern. If the headlines change downessential, keep them in Canada, because something like that were to be changed,the road, the consensus is that Canadianwe can do extensions from here, offers or if they renegotiate that and it\'s moreemployers will need to revisit the mathGuida, adding that other levers can be restrictive, then that would make thingswhen it comes to maintaining operationspulled to maintain the working status for extremely difficult for mobility, let or sending employees south of the border.professionals in either country. alone trade."This isnt the first time Trump has put theCross-border talent mobility is also at theNow may be the time to look at more USMCA in his crosshairs. In his first term,mercy of an intensifying "America first"domestic strategies for talent, Guida he was vocal about going back down toculture. This is not a new shift, per se, asadds, as well as taking a more strategic the studs with the free-trade agreement.U.S. administrations on both sides of thelook at what labour gaps take priority And while no major changes were issued,political spectrum have always been keenand how they can be addressed. If theres a case was made that some designationson promoting domestic supply chains.one piece of advice that encapsulates the on the USMCAs List of Professionals noNevertheless, where Canada has tradition- cross-border challenge as a whole, it\'s that longer aligned with the economy, whileally been welcomed in the Buy Americamobility professionals need to keep doing unlisted designations are growing sphere, Trump has signalled that this maywhat they do best and be ready to adapt. in demand.no longer be the case in the future. Is it"I am telling clients to buckle their seat trickier that Canada may now be outsidebelts because we\'re going to go for a bit Still, says Kitay, The problem is that inthat sphere? Perhaps. Either way, its notof a ride," says Guida. "Hopefully, it all the meantime, businesses have to makesomething Canadian employers can sleep decisions for the here and now to optimizeon, says Kitay. settles, but for now, we need to understand their workforce or operations. So I canwhat can potentially happen, find other see a lot of trepidation about what mayIn the midst of cross-border uncertainties,avenues to fill labour shortages, and just change, and that\'s compounded by the factits good to be reminded that Trumpsstay agile."Spring 2025PERSPECTIVES15'