b'ECONOMICOUTLOOKIS YOUR COMPANY RECESSION PROOF?SURVIVING COVID AND THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN By Warren HeeleyON MAY 1, 2020, THE CD HOWE INSTITUTEScould reach 10 per cent, and now experts are predicting even BUSINESS CYCLE COUNCIL ANNOUNCED that thehigher growth numbers for the 4th quarter as it draws to an end.Canadian economy had entered into a recession in the first quarter of 2020. Their decision was based on the economicAround this 2020 economic roller coaster, COVID came back with impact of the COVID pandemic. Monthly GDP numbers fora vengeance as we moved into the fall. A significant increase of March and April showed drops of 7.5 and 11.6 per centinfections across the country has caused provincial governments respectively, which were the largest declines on record to tighten health restrictions again and close businesses. As a for Canada. result, Canada could now be facing a lengthy recovery from COVID and continuing economic uncertainty from quarter to quarter. In This is the reality that most Canadians were already awarethe minds of many experts, lasting economic improvement will of because of the serious measures put in place by each ofnot happen until a proven vaccine is widely available. the provinces to halt the spread of the virus. The normal rule for declaring a recession is the benchmark of two quartersThe current outlook incorporates a better understanding of the of negative growth. However, CD Howes Council said, Thelong-term impacts of COVID-19 and the resulting recession, slowdown is already so swift and deep (considering the GDPwrites Paul Giovannoni, managing director at FMI Corporation, and job market losses) that its safe to declare a recession atwhich provides research statistics for the construction industry. this time. Though we forecast overall construction demand (in Canada) to be down over the next several years, an economic downturn is an Sheila Block, senior economist for the Canadian Centre foropportunity for innovation. Policy Alternatives, said, Ive always taken the definition of two quarters of negative growth (to define a recession). But this isFMI also noted that the construction industry typically lags behind just another example that we are in uncharted territory. This isthe overall economy and will not feel the effects of the recession just another way that the pandemic is redefining things. until 2021. Their forecast for Canadian construction is a decline of nine per cent next year.The Canadian economy went from the depths of recession in the first and second quarters to showing strength in the 3rdThe best way to describe the current Canadian economic quarter of 2020. GDP grew 1.2 per cent in August and waslandscape is uncharted waters. COVID has redefined the norms estimated to grow 0.7 per cent in September. The Stats Canadaused in the past based on the economic highs and lows since data also suggested that economic output in SeptemberMarch, which will undoubtedly continue for the foreseeable equalled approximately 96 per cent of output levels in Februaryfuture. For the construction and other industries, the objective is of 2020. They predicted that the growth for the 3rd quartersimple: survive. 10Quarter 4 2020 BUILDERSDIGEST'