b'PRESIDENTS MESSAGE2022BOOM OR BUST?T here is absolutely no question in mywhich is good news. The bad news is that mind that business opportunitiescontractors bidding lump sum projects in will abound in our sector for the2020 likely carried US$250 per 1,000 board foreseeable future. This supply sidefeet of lumber and have no way of accurately boom is unlike anything we have ever seen.forecasting what the future holds.In 2021, the GTA boasted 225 tower cranes accounting for nearly 50 per cent of all towerAnd what about labour disruption? Analysts cranes in North America, and still analysts havepredict the industry will need 310,000 new the gall to predict growth in the GTA and mostskilled workers over the next 10 years, and of southwestern Ontario. who among us believes government initiatives like immigration reform or a lackluster ad Surprisingly, commercial construction iscampaign primarily targeting children will solve growing despite the stay-at-home culturea problem this catastrophic? Again, what I see fostered during the pandemic, and the high- is disruption on a global scale.rise condo project pace has so far weathered high inflation and interest rate hikes. A federalI mentioned a possible third world war. Hows election may impact infrastructure spendingthat for geopolitical disruption? Putin is clearly but even that seems unlikely.not stopping with Ukraine. He wants to put the band back together and isnt afraid of NATO So why the pessimism? Its called disruption. or economic sanctions. One would think his oligarch comrades would collectively put an Lets start with supply chain disruption. Makeend to his quest to amass the old U.S.S.R. but no mistake, supply chain disruption does notfor the fact he wants to nationalizedie with the death of COVID-19. If the supplytheir businesses. chain recovery were imminent, would the U.S. Congress be considering committing $5 billionPerhaps the disrupter I fear most is to the Build Back Better Act targeting supplyproductivity. McKinsey says the causes chain mapping and monitoring, establishingof our productivity woes are poor project standards and best practices, strengtheningmanagement and execution, insufficient security, identifying and promoting technologyskills, inadequate design processes and an advances and providing grants to supportunder-investment in skills development, R&D resilience? I think not. and innovation. Wow! Stick that in your pipe and smoke it. Sounds harsh perhaps, but One of the impacts of supply chain disruptionthe simple truth is that Canada, and more is price volatility. Take lumber, for instance.specifically our sector, has been slow to evolve, Material shortages were initially caused byand the combination of foreign competition COVID-19 and all its subsequent variants, butand the tech revolution are fueling the fire.global warming induced natural disasters and a possible third world war keep the embers alive.Arguably, the most unstoppable disrupter And the numbers speak volumes. Futures peris technology, and the impact is undeniably 1,000 board feet are down from a high in profound. Experts tell us that tech has the May 2021 of US$1,711 to just over US$600,wherewithal to deliver upwards of 60 per 8Quarter 12022 BUILDERSDIGEST'