b'MARKET PERFORMANCECOVID ANDCONSTRUCTION: LOOKING AHEADHOW THE CONSTRUCTION MARKET COULD PERFORM THIS YEAR By Warren HeeleyTHE COVID-19 VIRUS HAS BEENon Canada said: The economic recoveryToronto and Ottawa leading the charge in IN CANADA for more than a year.will remain slow. However with its strongthe residential and infrastructure sectors. During that time, the country has been oneconomic and political fundamentals,Commercial projects will decline as private a roller-coaster ride as the virus ebbed andCanada should head into the uncertaintyinvestors gauge the impact of working flowed, governments focused on flatteningin a position of strength relative to from home on this market segment. the infection curve, and Canadianother countries.businesses tried to stay afloat in unchartedPent-up demand from spring lockdowns waters caused by lockdowns. The Business Development Bank ofresulted in Ontario housing starts Canada (BDC) reports: After the largestincreasing almost 20 per cent comparing No definitive market trends emerged aseconomic contraction since 19452020 to 2019. Starts for 2021 should things changed rapidly at the whim of(estimated at 5.5 per cent of GDP), thedrop due to reduced immigration in 2020. COVID. An optimistic summer gave way to aeconomy should grow sufficiently to largelyTo catch up, the federal government has second wave in the fall with rising infectionoffset the losses of 2020. increased immigration targets to 400,000 numbers. By late fall, business closuresfor both 2021 and 2022. and lockdowns returned as infectionsVancouvers BTY Groups market report skyrocketed. Only the introduction ofindicates that the construction sectorAccording to the BDC, The real estate vaccines at year end provided some lightwill bounce back in 2021 alongsidesector, unfazed to date by the crisis, at the end of the tunnel. a rebounding GDP. Canadas GDP isis expected to stagnate at best. Lower projected to grow by 4.1 per cent to 4.9immigration and possible increases in So what is the outlook for 2021? Howper cent in 2021, assuming the pandemicmortgage lending restrictions represent will the construction sector fair this year?is held largely in check and an effectivedownside risks, particularly inThe answer seems to revolve aroundvaccine is widely distributed.urban centres.how Ontario and Canada manage the pandemic. Once again, COVID-19 willSome experts believe that Ontario will leadWILD CARDS be a wild card when it comes to howthe provinces in economic recovery. HigherWild cards will have a significant effect on construction performs over the next year. growth is forecast in provinces hardest hitindustry numbers in 2021. BDC indicated by the COVID economic fallout. Ontariothat many surveyed companies will delay EXPERT OPINIONS had the strictest health restrictions inor cancel business investments simply Forecasts from construction industry2020 and should experience the strongestto get their finances in better shape after experts are divided on the year ahead.growth in 2021 at 4.5 per cent. 2020. Postponing business investments Similar to 2020, unpredictability iswill limit the economic recovery inweighing heavily on what might happen inConstruction is expected to be a leader2021 and delay the return to a pre-2021. Turner & Townsends (T&T) reportin the economic recovery in Ontario, withpandemic economy.26Quarter 1 2021 BUILDERSDIGEST'